Jørgen D. og Kristian P.

Top trends 2010: 1) Social media fatigue

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2009 is coming to an end, and we’ve dug out our good ol’ crystal ball to see what 2010 may bring. In a series of daily posts starting today, Jørgen and Kristian will present the most important digital trends for the upcoming year. Please join the discussion!

You can also see what we so cleverly predicted for 2009 and 2008.

1) Social media fatigue

Fake Facebook logo reading fatigueFacebook was more fun when you got a bunch of new friends every day. Now that all your relationships with friends and old classmates are digitally secured, we enter the «same old, same old» stage. We know, we know, it’s not like social media is going to go away or even slow down in 2010 – on the contrary. But the sheer thrill of something brand new will start to wear off.

Up until now, Facebook has been like the first couple of wild parties you went to as a teenager, and now it’s more like hanging out for a beer with your mates – again. Social media is growing up, and – like people – grown-up means more mature, and (let’s face it) less fun. Oh, and although Twitter still can and will be useful, it’s too much like Tamagotchi (tweeting for tweet’s sake) to take over for Facebook. It will continue to grow (in certain segments, at least), but remain a niche service. Those in the know will have their own parties, with discussions and lists you’re not part of. But at least you can watch the party through the window.

So – you’ll be using more social tools, and you’ll feel confident putting your music and photos online, but probably not with quite the same enthusiasm. Maintaining a bunch of profiles is just tiresome. It’s almost like … work.

Why will this happen?: Although you still check your feed 10 times a day, watching old classmates’ pics of their kids is starting to get old, and so does constructing clever status updates to fish for comments and a bunch of «I like this».

Why not?: Photos of drunken friends are a timeless time-waster (as long as they keep adding ’em …). And now that the social media sites own our networks, photos and conversations, it’s not like we’re going anywhere either. Keep feeding us easier ways to brag, stalk and chat, and we’re in for another round. And after all, five years ago we had no YouTube, no Facebook, no Flickr, no Twitter. Things can still change that quickly.

What do you think? Are we off the mark from the very start, or right on the money? Add your opinions and comments!

Tomorrow’s trend:

Real-time search and social search